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Value bets

Model probabilities against the sportsbook odds of the day — archived exactly as the last refresh left it.

Closed · last refreshed 2026-06-25T23:24
Edge = model probability − Pinnacle’s de-vigged line (the sharpest market = best estimate of true probability); odds shown are the best price across books. Top 5 de-correlated picks per game. Totals & BTTS markets show as leans only. The model’s goal totals aren’t calibrated yet, so they aren’t staked as bets. No historical odds = not ROI-backtested. The market-anchored forecast blends the model with Pinnacle’s de-vigged line (the sharpest probability estimate); it’s experimental and judged live by CLV. Informational, not betting advice.
CLV was never settled. 40 picks were logged but no closing prices were captured against them, so this run produced no evidence either way on whether the edges were real. Treat the slate below as a record of what the model said, not as a validated result.
ParaguayvAustralia
Jun 26 · 02:00 UTC
leanAustralia win+19%32% vs 14%low
leanParaguay -0.5+14%34% vs 20%low
2 other markets screened out
TurkeyvUSA
Jun 26 · 02:00 UTC
leanTurkey win+23%40% vs 17%low
3 other markets screened out
SenegalvIraq
Jun 26 · 19:00 UTC
betIraq +1.5+9%52% vs 43%medium
betDraw+6%19% vs 13%high
avoidUnder 2.5 goals+0%38% vs 38%medium
avoidOver 3.5 goals+0%40% vs 39%medium
7 other markets screened out
NorwayvFrance
Jun 26 · 19:00 UTC
betNorway +1.5+6%68% vs 62%medium
betDraw+5%24% vs 20%high
leanOver 3.5 goals+8%48% vs 39%low
5 other markets screened out
Cape VerdevSaudi
Jun 27 · 00:00 UTC
betDraw+6%35% vs 29%high
leanSaudi Arabia +0.5+2%66% vs 64%medium
leanUnder 2.5 goals+4%60% vs 56%medium
4 other markets screened out
UruguayvSpain
Jun 27 · 00:00 UTC
leanUruguay +1.5+10%71% vs 61%low
betDraw+6%29% vs 23%high
avoidUnder 2.5 goals+1%54% vs 53%medium
4 other markets screened out
EgyptvIran
Jun 27 · 03:00 UTC
betIran win+8%31% vs 23%high
leanOver 1.5 goals+8%69% vs 61%medium
5 other markets screened out
N. ZealandvBelgium
Jun 27 · 03:00 UTC
leanBelgium -2.5+8%52% vs 44%low
leanOver 3.5 goals+16%64% vs 48%low
6 other markets screened out
CroatiavGhana
Jun 27 · 21:00 UTC
betCroatia win+8%63% vs 55%high
leanOver 2.5 goals+17%59% vs 42%low
6 other markets screened out
PanamavEngland
Jun 27 · 21:00 UTC
leanEngland -2.5+16%59% vs 43%low
leanOver 3.5 goals+25%70% vs 45%low
6 other markets screened out
ColombiavPortugal
Jun 27 · 23:30 UTC
betColombia +0.5+5%53% vs 48%medium
leanDraw+3%28% vs 25%high
leanOver 2.5 goals+14%61% vs 47%low
3 other markets screened out
DR CongovUzbekistan
Jun 27 · 23:30 UTC
leanUzbekistan +1.5+14%86% vs 72%low
leanDraw+14%36% vs 22%low
leanUnder 2.5 goals+15%64% vs 50%low
4 other markets screened out
AlgeriavAustria
Jun 28 · 02:00 UTC
betAustria win+8%41% vs 33%medium
leanOver 2.5 goals+30%62% vs 32%low
betAlgeria win+8%31% vs 22%high
4 other markets screened out
JordanvArgentina
Jun 28 · 02:00 UTC
leanArgentina -1.5+23%83% vs 59%low
leanOver 3.5 goals+36%74% vs 38%low
6 other markets screened out
S. AfricavCanada
Jun 28 · 19:00 UTC
leanSouth Africa +1.5+3%73% vs 70%medium
leanDraw+3%29% vs 26%high
leanOver 2.5 goals+8%50% vs 43%medium
5 other markets screened out
BrazilvJapan
Jun 29 · 17:00 UTC
betBrazil win+7%62% vs 55%medium
leanOver 2.5 goals+14%62% vs 47%low
5 other markets screened out
NetherlandsvMorocco
Jun 30 · 01:00 UTC
betMorocco +0.5+7%60% vs 53%medium
leanDraw+3%31% vs 28%high
leanOver 2.5 goals+8%50% vs 42%medium
3 other markets screened out
Disclaimer. WC2026 is an independent statistical model published for educational and informational purposes only. Nothing on this site is betting, financial, or investment advice, no result is guaranteed, and modelled performance does not predict future outcomes. We are not a bookmaker, do not accept or place wagers, and are not affiliated with any sportsbook. Odds are shown for comparison only and may be inaccurate or out of date. Any decision you make is your own, and we accept no liability for any loss or damage arising from use of this information. Betting carries financial risk; only stake what you can afford to lose. 18+ (21+ where required). If gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.