2026 World Cup
Spain win the 2026 World Cup. Final result and a report card for the model, now that every game has been played.
Tournament complete
Final standings 104 games played
Champions
SpainSpain 1–0 Argentina
SpainSpain 1–0 ArgentinaRunners-up
ArgentinaSpain 1–0 Argentina
ArgentinaSpain 1–0 ArgentinaThird place
EnglandFrance 4–6 England
EnglandFrance 4–6 EnglandFourth place
FranceFrance 4–6 England
FranceFrance 4–6 EnglandPre-tournament odds vs what happened reconstructed · both ratings fit only on pre-11 Jun data
1Argentina16.7%Runners-up
Argentina16.7%Runners-up2Spain14.7%Champions
Spain14.7%Champions3
Brazil10.1%Round of 16
Brazil10.1%Round of 164England8.2%Third place
England8.2%Third place5France6.7%Fourth place
France6.7%Fourth place6
Portugal6.3%Round of 16
Portugal6.3%Round of 167
Colombia5.4%Round of 16
Colombia5.4%Round of 168
Germany5.3%Round of 32
Germany5.3%Round of 329
Belgium3.6%Quarter-finals
Belgium3.6%Quarter-finals10
Netherlands3.3%Round of 32
Netherlands3.3%Round of 3211
Ecuador2.7%Round of 32
Ecuador2.7%Round of 3212
Morocco2.5%Quarter-finals
Morocco2.5%Quarter-finalsSpain went in as the model’s no.2 pick (14.7%). 3 of its top four finished in the top four. This is a reconstruction, not a published call — it was computed after the tournament from a model that never saw a tournament result, so it is an honest backtest of the method, not evidence the forecast was made in advance.
Model report card pre-tournament model · fit only on data before 11 Jun 2026, no hindsight
60%
outcomes called right (62/104)
13
exact scorelines out of 104
86%
winner picked right (72/84 decided games)
Every 2026 game scored by a model that never saw a single tournament result. Game-by-game breakdowns are on the group and knockout pages.